B2-38 · Say how sure you are about a conclusion
Medical ethics
Use subjective müssen for near certainty, dürfte for a probable assumption and könnte for a possibility, including past forms, to discuss gene therapy and organ donation neutrally.
About 5 minutes to read · 12 quiz questions
01
müssen: almost certain
Müssen can express a confident conclusion instead of an obligation: Die Ärztin muss die Frage schon oft gehört haben means I am almost sure she has heard it. The speaker draws the conclusion from what they see or know.
Der Saal ist voll, das Thema muss viele Menschen interessieren.
The hall is full, so the topic must interest many people.
Die Ärztin muss diese Frage schon oft gehört haben.
The doctor must have heard this question many times already.
Die Familie muss lange über die Organspende gesprochen haben.
The family must have talked about organ donation for a long time.
Der Spender muss einen Organspendeausweis gehabt haben.
The donor must have had an organ donor card.
For the past, put the participle and haben or sein at the end: muss gehört haben, muss gewesen sein. The setting is a fictional public debate on organ donation. Der Organspendeausweis is an organ donor card.
02
dürfte: probably
Dürfte, the Konjunktiv II of dürfen, expresses a cautious assumption: probably. Die Behandlung dürfte teuer sein means the treatment is probably expensive. It sounds measured and is common in reports and expert statements.
Die neue Gentherapie dürfte sehr teuer sein.
The new gene therapy is probably very expensive.
Die meisten Zuschauer dürften schon von der Gentherapie gehört haben.
Most viewers have probably already heard of gene therapy.
Die Debatte über die Widerspruchslösung dürfte noch lange dauern.
The debate about the opt-out system will probably go on for a long time.
Die Entscheidung dürfte vielen Angehörigen schwerfallen.
The decision is probably hard for many relatives.
This dürfte has nothing to do with permission. Its plural is dürften. Die Gentherapie means gene therapy. Die Widerspruchslösung is an opt-out system, in which everyone counts as a donor unless they object.
03
Weigh certainty in a debate
In a debate, speakers mark how sure they are. Muss signals near certainty, dürfte a likely assumption and könnte a mere possibility. A moderator can use these forms to sum up positions without taking sides.
| Certainty | Form | Example |
|---|---|---|
| almost certain | muss | Das muss stimmen. |
| probable | dürfte | Das dürfte stimmen. |
| possible | könnte | Das könnte stimmen. |
Beide Seiten dürften gute Argumente haben.
Both sides probably have good arguments.
Die Kritiker dürften vor allem an die Selbstbestimmung denken.
The critics are probably thinking above all of self-determination.
Die Befürworter müssen sich gut vorbereitet haben, denn sie zitieren viele Studien.
The supporters must have prepared well, because they cite many studies.
Eine Einigung könnte noch Jahre dauern.
An agreement could take years.
Supporters and critics of an opt-out system disagree; this lesson presents their positions, not a verdict. Die Befürworter are supporters, die Selbstbestimmung is self-determination and die Einigung an agreement.
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